Bonjour a tous. J'ai lu cet article publié sur le blog d'etoro que je crois utile et interressant. Qui aurait la gentillesse de me traduire en quelques mots les différents scénarios. Je précise que je comprend l'article dans son ensemble mais je bloque au niveau des scénarios et du vocabulairespécifique.
Aussi comment connaitre en temps reèls les divers scénarios qui seront adoptés pour pouvoir rapidement prendre position.
Merci beaucoup et bons trades à tous
The Federal Open Market Committee will publish its interest rate decision at 6:15 p.m. (GMT) on Wednesday, September 21. While the Fed is expected to hold interest levels at current levels, markets are waiting to see how the Fed will balance its dual mandate. Unlike other central banks, the Fed has a dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Due to this, the Fed has ignored high inflation data in the past to stimulate the economy. The Fed has several options for economic stimulus such as lowering interest on excess reserves, large scale asset purchases, and reinvesting maturing assets.
Recent U.S. Economic developments to take in consideration:
The Non Farm Payrolls data for August showed that no jobs were created. This was a big blow to the U.S. economy as analysts were expecting a growth of 68K jobs. The unemployment rate currently stands at 9.1%. Advance Retail Sales showed that August was another month of flat growth in that sector. The annualized CPI data for August showed that inflation stood at 3.8%. The University of Michigan Confidence data came in at 57.8 higher than market expectations of 57. Latest Prelim GDP data shows that there was a decline of 1% in second quarter.
Market Reaction to last month’s FOMC decision:
At the August meeting, the Fed decided to maintain the zero interest rate policy until mid-2013. It said the economic recovery was slower than expected. This considerably weakened the U.S. Dollar and the EUR/USD rallied over 100 pips after the news release. The Dow Jones industrial average rallied 400 points in reaction to the Fed’s decision.
Scenario A: Hold interest rates at current levels with hawkish bias
In this scenario, the Fed would be concerned about inflation risks and see diminished need for monetary stimulus. There would be no large scale asset purchases. The Fed might even hint at raising rates before mid-2013. In this scenario the EUR/USD might plunge to 1.3000 as U.S. Dollar strength gains momentum.
Scenario B: Hold interest rates at current levels with no change in bias
There is a low chance of this scenario happening but the Fed could take a wait-and-see approach. The Fed might use language that shows no material change in economic conditions since the last FOMC meeting. The Fed will try to assure the markets that it has tools available and ready to use if needed. The EUR/USD would trade sideways in this scenario and create good opportunity for range traders.
Scenario C: Hold interest rates at current levels with dovish bias
In this scenario, the Fed would be concerned about deterioration in labor market, sluggish consumer confidence and depressed housing sector. The Fed might announce plans to purchase long-term debt to further stimulate the economy. The Fed could also communicate that it will keep rates low beyond mid-2013. In this scenario, the EUR/USD might target 1.4400.
Aussi comment connaitre en temps reèls les divers scénarios qui seront adoptés pour pouvoir rapidement prendre position.
Merci beaucoup et bons trades à tous
The Federal Open Market Committee will publish its interest rate decision at 6:15 p.m. (GMT) on Wednesday, September 21. While the Fed is expected to hold interest levels at current levels, markets are waiting to see how the Fed will balance its dual mandate. Unlike other central banks, the Fed has a dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Due to this, the Fed has ignored high inflation data in the past to stimulate the economy. The Fed has several options for economic stimulus such as lowering interest on excess reserves, large scale asset purchases, and reinvesting maturing assets.
Recent U.S. Economic developments to take in consideration:
The Non Farm Payrolls data for August showed that no jobs were created. This was a big blow to the U.S. economy as analysts were expecting a growth of 68K jobs. The unemployment rate currently stands at 9.1%. Advance Retail Sales showed that August was another month of flat growth in that sector. The annualized CPI data for August showed that inflation stood at 3.8%. The University of Michigan Confidence data came in at 57.8 higher than market expectations of 57. Latest Prelim GDP data shows that there was a decline of 1% in second quarter.
Market Reaction to last month’s FOMC decision:
At the August meeting, the Fed decided to maintain the zero interest rate policy until mid-2013. It said the economic recovery was slower than expected. This considerably weakened the U.S. Dollar and the EUR/USD rallied over 100 pips after the news release. The Dow Jones industrial average rallied 400 points in reaction to the Fed’s decision.
Scenario A: Hold interest rates at current levels with hawkish bias
In this scenario, the Fed would be concerned about inflation risks and see diminished need for monetary stimulus. There would be no large scale asset purchases. The Fed might even hint at raising rates before mid-2013. In this scenario the EUR/USD might plunge to 1.3000 as U.S. Dollar strength gains momentum.
Scenario B: Hold interest rates at current levels with no change in bias
There is a low chance of this scenario happening but the Fed could take a wait-and-see approach. The Fed might use language that shows no material change in economic conditions since the last FOMC meeting. The Fed will try to assure the markets that it has tools available and ready to use if needed. The EUR/USD would trade sideways in this scenario and create good opportunity for range traders.
Scenario C: Hold interest rates at current levels with dovish bias
In this scenario, the Fed would be concerned about deterioration in labor market, sluggish consumer confidence and depressed housing sector. The Fed might announce plans to purchase long-term debt to further stimulate the economy. The Fed could also communicate that it will keep rates low beyond mid-2013. In this scenario, the EUR/USD might target 1.4400.